NHC Atlantic Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A surface trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms along and just offshore the coasts of Texas and
Louisiana. Surface observations continue to show no signs of a
closed circulation. This system is expected to meander near the
coast through much of next week, and some slow development is
possible if it remains offshore. Regardless of development, heavy
rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of coastal
Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles remain disorganized.
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form some time next week
while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and
continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter
part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave just the west of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible through late next week while
it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

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