NHC Atlantic Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast is producing
some disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and just offshore
the coasts of Texas and Louisiana. This system is expected to linger
near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development
is possible if it meanders offshore. Regardless of development,
heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of
coastal Louisiana and the upper Texas coast during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser
Antilles continues to produce some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. The disturbance is forecast to move westward and
reach the Lesser Antilles on Monday, then continue across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea through the middle part of next
week. Later next week, environmental conditions appear to become
more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could
form as the system moves across the western Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located just to the west of the Cabo Verde
Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development is no longer expected due to unfavorable environmental
conditions as the tropical wave moves westward to west-northwestward
over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.


Forecaster Mahoney/Reinhart

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