NHC Atlantic Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure just offshore of the upper Texas coast
continues to produce some disorganized shower activity near the
coast and over the adjacent waters of the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. This system is expected to meander near the coast for the
next couple of days, and some slow development is possible if it
remains offshore. By Tuesday, the system is forecast to move inland,
and further development is not expected. Regardless, heavy rains
could cause some flash flooding across portions of the Texas coast
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave located near the Lesser Antilles.
The disturbance is expected to move westward and cross the
eastern Caribbean Sea through Tuesday with little development.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development while the system moves across the central and western
Caribbean Sea during the middle and latter parts of the week, and a
tropical depression could form during that time. This system could
cause gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall over portions of the
Lesser Antilles today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave along the west coast of Africa is producing a large
area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to gradually become more favorable for development, and a
tropical depression could form in a few days while the disturbance
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Blake

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