NHC Atlantic Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad and weak area of low pressure just offshore of the middle
Texas coast continues to produce some disorganized shower activity
along portions of the coast of Texas and over the adjacent waters of
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This system is expected to move
inland early Tuesday, and development is not expected. Regardless,
heavy rains could cause some flash flooding across portions of the
Texas coast during the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

2. Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave is producing disorganized thunderstorms and gusty
winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola and over the adjacent waters. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become more conducive for development when the
system reaches the western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of
Mexico late this week and over the weekend, and a tropical
depression could form during that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean:
A tropical wave over the far eastern Atlantic is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are forecast to become a little more conducive for development, and
a tropical depression could form in a few days while the disturbance
moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic Ocean. This system could produce areas of heavy
rain and gusty winds across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands in a
day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Forecaster Cangialosi

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