NHC Atlantic Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms persists over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a broad area of
low pressure that is interacting with a nearby weak front.
Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for significant
development of this system while it meanders over the northwestern
Gulf and eventually merges with an approaching frontal system by
late Friday or Saturday. Although tropical cyclone development is
unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected to continue across portions of
the northern Gulf Coast during the next day or so. Additional
information on this system can be found in products issued by your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
A gale-force, non-tropical area of low pressure centered a few
hundred miles east of North Carolina is producing showers and
thunderstorms with some signs of organization to the east of its
center. This system could acquire some tropical or subtropical
characteristics over the next day or two while it moves generally
north-northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United
States. The low is expected to move over cooler waters and become
associated with fronts by early Saturday, and further development is
not expected. Additional information on this system, including gale
warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the western Caribbean Sea is producing
a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development is not expected before the system reaches Belize and the
Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday. Some slow development is possible
later this weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the early part
of next week while the disturbance moves slowly northwestward or
northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

5. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the
Leeward Islands is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Development is not expected due to strong upper-level
winds while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.


High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Reinhart

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