NHC Atlantic Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has diminished tonight in
association with a broad area of low pressure and a nearby weak
front over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable for significant development of this
system while it meanders over the northwestern Gulf and eventually
merges with an approaching frontal system later today or on
Saturday. Although tropical cyclone development is unlikely, heavy
rainfall is expected to continue across portions of the northern
Gulf Coast during the next day or so. Additional information on this
system can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization with a
gale-force, non-tropical area of low pressure centered a few hundred
miles east of North Carolina, and recent satellite wind data
indicate a front extends into the low. This system could briefly
acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next day or so
while it moves generally north-northeastward, remaining offshore of
the northeastern United States. The low is expected to move over
cooler waters by early Saturday, and thereafter further development
is not expected. Additional information on this system, including
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Development is
not expected before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula later today. Some slow development is possible later this
weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the early part
of next week while the disturbance moves slowly northwestward or
northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.


High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Reinhart

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