NHC Atlantic Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 7 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):
An area of low pressure has formed over the Bay of Campeche and is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system is
forecast to drift slowly northward for a couple of days while it
interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
the system moves generally northward near or along the Mexican and
Texas Gulf coastline. Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico
coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual
development of this system is possible while the system meanders
during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form
early next week. The system is then forecast to move
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the central tropical
Atlantic during the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of
low pressure are located several hundred miles east-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow development of this system is
possible as it interacts with a tropical wave expected to move off
the African continent early next week and moves west-northwestward
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Bucci

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