NHC Atlantic Outlook

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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
945 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Outlook issued to update the system in the eastern Tropical
Atlantic west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands (AL93).

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Francine, located over the western Gulf of Mexico a couple hundred
miles off the coast of Louisiana.

1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL93):
Updated: Recent satellite-wind data indicates that the system
located a few hundred miles to the west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands has developed a well-defined circulation. In addition,
showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization,
and if these trends continue, advisories will be issued on a
tropical depression later this morning. The system is moving to the
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph and will be moving into the central
Tropical Atlantic by the end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
An elongated area of low pressure located over the central tropical
Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for some slight development during the next day or two
while the system moves westward at 5 to 10 mph over the central
tropical Atlantic. The disturbance is expected to reach an area of
stronger upper-level winds on Thursday, likely ending its chances
for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
A small but well-defined area of low pressure located several
hundred miles to the east of the Leeward Islands is producing an
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The proximity of dry
air near the system is expected to limit additional development over
the next couple of days before environmental conditions become even
less conducive by this weekend as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

4. Offshore the Southeastern U.S. over the Western Atlantic:
In a few days, a non-tropical area of low pressure could form along
a residual frontal boundary a few hundred miles off the southeastern
U.S. coastline. Thereafter, some subtropical or tropical development
is possible during the early part of next week as the system
meanders over the Gulf Stream or drifts slowly northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Papin/Blake

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