NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle part of the week. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of the week well to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the middle
and latter parts of the week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while
it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.


Forecaster Kelly

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