NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 30 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. South of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased this morning with an
area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico. However, overnight satellite wind data
indicated the system did not yet possess a well-defined center.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development of
this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form within
the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western East Pacific:
A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this
system is possible during the middle and latter parts of the week
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across
the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico later this week. Afterwards,
environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form towards the
end of the week or this weekend. The system is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
several days, remaining offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.


Forecaster Papin

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