NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jul 31 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.

1. Western East Pacific (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with
an area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to the
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions appear marginal for further development of
this system over the next couple of days. This system is forecast to
move slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the western
portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this
system later this week, and environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend as the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next several days,
remaining offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

Forecaster Bucci

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