NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

1. Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than one thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity
to the west of its center. Environmental conditions appear marginal
for some development of this system during the next couple of days
while it moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph. By this weekend,
environmental conditions are forecast to become more unfavorable,
and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next day or two, and thereafter environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development. A tropical depression is likely
to form by this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta are issued under
WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

Forecaster Papin

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