NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Carlotta, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico.

1. Western East Pacific (EP95):
An area of low pressure located more than a thousand miles to the
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity
around its center. Environmental conditions appear marginal for some
development of this system during the next couple of days while it
drifts slowly westward. By this weekend, environmental conditions
are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable, and further
development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of
Central America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during
the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is
likely to form by this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining
well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Papin

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