NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Carlotta, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Western East Pacific (EP95):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized compared to yesterday near and just west of an area of low
pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. However, marginal environmental
conditions are likely to limit development of this system during
the next few days. The low is forecast to meander over open waters
during the next day or so, then begin moving northeastward by late
this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the
south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to
form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Papin

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