NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

[spenb]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Western East Pacific (EP95):
Earlier satellite-derived wind data showed a well-defined area of
low pressure located located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula that was producing
winds of up to 35-40 mph just west of the center. In addition,
shower and thunderstorm activity has developed a little closer to
the center this morning. If these convective trends continue, this
system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm
before environmental conditions become unfavorable for development
in a day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. South of Southern Mexico (EP96):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a broad
area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.


Forecaster Papin

View the full article