NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Carlotta, located several hundred miles to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm
Daniel, located more than one thousand miles to the west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system
moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Well South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP97):
Satellite-derived wind data indicate an area of low pressure located
several hundred miles to the south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula is gradually becoming better defined.
Although its shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized,
environmental conditions appear conducive for some development, and
a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days
while the system meanders within weak steering currents. Thereafter,
the system is forecast to interact with the disturbance (EP96) to
its southeast, which should limit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

Forecaster Reinhart

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