NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the west of its center.
Upper-level winds are forecast to become more conducive for gradual
development of this system over the weekend, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the central portion of the
eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form this weekend or early next week
more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula. Slow development of this system is
anticipated, and a tropical depression will likely form during the
middle part of next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin and into
the Central Pacific basin. Information on this system's development
can also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure has formed well southeast of the
Hawaiian islands. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend into early next week while it moves across the western
portion of the East Pacific and into the Central Pacific basin. By
the middle of next week, the system could merge with a larger system
to the east. Information on this system's development can also be
found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Kelly

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