NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico continues to produce a distinct area of
showers and thunderstorms that are showing signs of organization.
Upper-level winds are forecast to be generally conducive for
additional development of this system through the weekend, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days
while it moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph across the
central portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with a
broad trough of low pressure located more than one thousand miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
While this system may interact with another area of low pressure to
its west-southwest over the next several days, some gradual
development of this system is forecasted if it remains the dominant
disturbance. A tropical depression is likely form during the middle
part of next week while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward over the western portion of the basin and into
the Central Pacific basin by the end of the week. Information on
this system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible this
weekend into early next week while it moves slowly over the western
portion of the East Pacific or Central Pacific basin. By the middle
of next week, this system could merge with a larger system
developing to its east. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Papin

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