NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

[spenb]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms
that are becoming better organized. Upper-level winds are forecast
to become more conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph across the
central portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. While this system may
interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest over the
next several days, some gradual development is forecast assuming it
becomes the dominant disturbance. A tropical depression is likely
to form during the middle part of next week while the system moves
westward to west-northwestward over the western portion of the basin
and into the Central Pacific basin by the end of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A small area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible early
next week while it moves slowly over the western portion of the East
Pacific or in the Central Pacific basin. By the middle of next week,
this disturbance could merge with an area of low pressure developing
to its east. Information on this system's development can also be
found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Kelly

View the full article