NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms
that continue to show signs of organization. Recently-received
microwave satellite imagery also suggests the system is developing a
well-defined center, and if these trends continue, a tropical
depression is likely to form as soon as later today. The system is
forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph across the
central portion of the eastern Pacific during the next several
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad
trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is forecast to
interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest over the
next several days, which could limit additional development if this
system does not become the dominant disturbance. Regardless, a
tropical depression could still form during the middle part of the
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the
western portion of the East Pacific basin before it possibly merges
with the disturbance currently located further west. Information on
this system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands is currently associated with some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms on its western side. This disturbance is forecast to
interact with the disturbance located to its east. If this system
becomes the dominant disturbance, some gradual development is
possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of
this week while it initially moves slowly over the western portion
of the East Pacific. A faster west-northwestward motion into the
Central Pacific basin is likely by the latter portion of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

4. Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Yet another area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico over the next few days. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for some slow development of
this system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward
throughout the week into the Central portion of the East Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

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