NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Gilma located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.

1. Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
A low pressure system located well southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This
disturbance is forecast to interact with the disturbance located to
its east-northeast. If this system becomes the dominant disturbance,
some gradual development is possible, and a tropical depression
could form in the next couple of days while it initially moves
slowly over the western portion of the East Pacific. A faster
west-northwestward motion into the Central Pacific basin is likely
by the latter portion of the week. Information on this system's
development can also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for
the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is
forecast to interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest
over the next few days which could limit additional development.
Regardless, a tropical depression could still form during the middle
part of the week while the system moves generally west-northwestward
before it possibly merges with the disturbance currently located
further west. Information on this system's development can also be
found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow
development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly
west-northwestward into the central portion of the East Pacific
basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

Forecaster Bucci

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