NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a low pressure system located well east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands. This disturbance is forecast to interact
with a disturbance located to its east-northeast. If this system
becomes the dominant disturbance, some gradual development is
possible, and a tropical depression could form in the next couple of
days while it initially moves slowly over the western portion of the
East Pacific. A faster west-northwestward motion into the Central
Pacific basin is likely by the latter portion of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system is
forecast to interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest
over the next few days which could limit additional development.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form during the middle part
of the week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward before
it possibly merges with the disturbance currently located farther
west. Information on this system's development can also be found in
the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week.
Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for some slow
development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

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