NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
An area of low pressure located well east-southeast of Hawaii
continues to show signs of becoming better organized. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days. The disturbance is forecast to meander slowly northward
during the next few days, before accelerating west-northwestward
into the Central Pacific basin by the latter portion of the week.
Information on this system's development can also be found in the
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
A broad area of shower and thunderstorm activity is located well
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
This system is forecast to move slowly toward the northwest for the
next few days, and interactions with either EP90 to its west or
Gilma to its east could limit the potential for formation.
Regardless, a tropical depression could form within the next few
days. Further development after that time will be unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico around the middle of the week.
Environmental conditions could become conducive for some slow
development of this system thereafter as it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Gilma are issued under
WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.

Forecaster D. Zelinsky

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