NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

[spenb]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Aug 19 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Well East-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization
in association with an area of low pressure located well
east-southeast of Hawaii. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the next day or two. The disturbance is forecast to meander
slowly northward or northeastward during the next day to two, while
interacting with or possibly combining with another disturbance
located a few hundred miles to its east-northeast. The combined
system is then forecast to accelerate west-northwestward into the
Central Pacific basin by Wednesday night. Information on this
system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better
organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located
well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. This system is forecast to move toward the west-northwest
during the next day or two as it interacts with or possibly combines
with EP90 to its west, and a tropical depression could form within
the next few days. Further development after that time appears
unlikely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure is expected to form well to the south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of this week. Environmental
conditions should support slow development thereafter, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system
moves west-northwestward over open waters, well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

View the full article