NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90/EP91):
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues in
association with two disturbances over the western portion of the
East Pacific basin. These systems are expected to merge tonight,
and gradual development is anticipated after they merge. A tropical
depression or tropical storm will likely form during the next day or
so while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is
then expected to strengthen as it moves across the central Pacific
basin late this week and move near the Hawaiian Islands late this
weekend or early next week.

While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor
this disturbance. Information on this system's development can also
be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific
basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred
miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development in a day or two,
and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward over open waters,
well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Blake

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