NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gilma, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP90/EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a well-defined area of
low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands
are gradually becoming better organized, and only a slight increase
in organization could result in the formation of a tropical
depression or tropical storm while it moves generally westward at
10 to 15 mph. The weaker disturbance located just to its southwest
is expected to dissipate or merge with this system during the next
several hours. This system is expected to strengthen as it moves
across the central Pacific basin late this week and move near the
Hawaiian Islands late this weekend or early next week.

1. While it is too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts, interests in Hawaii should closely monitor
this disturbance. Information on this system's development can also
be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific
basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred
miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico are associated
with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
forecast to become more conducive for development in a day or two,
and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the
weekend while the system moves west-northwestward over open waters,
well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Hagen/Pasch

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