NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about a thousand miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization
today in association with an area of low pressure located well
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. However, only a slight
improvement in organization could result in the formation of a
tropical depression or tropical storm later tonight or early
Thursday while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. This
system is expected to strengthen as it moves into the central
Pacific basin on Thursday and moves near the Hawaiian Islands late
this weekend or early next week.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though
it remains too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a trough of low pressure centered several hundred miles southwest of
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the
next two to three days while the system moves west-northwestward
into the central portion of the East Pacific, well offshore of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Blake

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