NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Aug 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located about one thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually increased tonight in
association with an area of low pressure located well east-southeast
of the Hawaiian Islands. A slight improvement in organization could
result in the formation of a tropical depression or tropical storm
on Thursday while it moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. This
system is expected to move into the central Pacific basin early
Thursday morning, where it is then forecast to strengthen during the
next couple of days and move near the Hawaiian Islands late this
weekend or early next week.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though
it remains too early to determine the exact location and magnitude
of potential impacts. Information on this system's development can
also be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central
Pacific basin. For marine forecasts, including gale warnings, see
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the south
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development
over the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the central portion of the
East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Reinhart

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