NHC Eastern North Pacific Outlook

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Aug 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Gilma, located more than one thousand miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands (EP91/CP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to show signs of
organization with an area of low pressure located well
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Only a slight improvement in
organization could result in the formation of a tropical depression
or tropical storm later today while it moves generally westward at
10 to 15 mph. This system is currently crossing into the Central
Pacific basin, where it is then forecast to strengthen during the
next couple of days and move near the Hawaiian Islands late this
weekend or early next week. For marine forecasts, including gale
warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.

Interests in Hawaii should closely monitor this disturbance, though
it remains too soon to determine the exact location and magnitude of
potential impacts. Now that the system is moving into the Central
Pacific basin, all future information on this system will be found
in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific Basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

2. Central Portion of the East Pacific (EP92):
A broad area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles to the
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and is
currently producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms primarily west of its center. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be generally conducive for development over the next
several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the
next few days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph over the central portion of the East Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.


High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on
the web at hurricanes.gov

Forecaster Papin

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