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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Western East Pacific (EP95): Showers and thunderstorms have become a little less organized in association with an area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. This system could still become a short-lived tropical depression before environmental conditions become unfavorable for development in a day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 2. South of Southern Mexico (EP96): A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of southern Mexico is associated with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi View the full article

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM HST Fri Aug 2 2024 For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W: No tropical cyclones are expected through the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Gibbs NNNN View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, located over central Cuba. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Western East Pacific (EP95): A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in organization since earlier today. Despite marginal environmental conditions, a tropical depression could form over the next day or so as the low meanders. By late this weekend, environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development as the system moves northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 2. South of Southern Mexico (EP96): A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Bucci View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Carlotta, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Western East Pacific (EP95): A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in organization since earlier today. Despite marginal environmental conditions, a tropical depression could form over the next day or so as the low meanders. By late this weekend, environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development as the system moves northeastward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. 2. South of Southern Mexico (EP96): A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Bucci View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, located over central Cuba. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Berg NNNN View the full article

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM HST Fri Aug 2 2024 For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W: No tropical cyclones are expected through the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Kodama NNNN View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, located over eastern Cuba. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN View the full article

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ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1155 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low pressure in the Western part of the East Pacific (EP95). Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Carlotta, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Western East Pacific (EP95): Updated: Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has a well-defined circulation and is producing winds up to 35 mph. Despite marginal environmental conditions, any improvement in the current convective organization could result formation of a tropical depression over the next day or two as the low meanders over open waters, then begins to move northeastward by late this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. 2. South of Southern Mexico (EP96): A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Papin/Roberts View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, located over eastern Cuba. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1155 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Special outlook issued to update discussion of the area of low pressure in the Western part of the East Pacific (EP95). Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Carlotta, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Western East Pacific (EP95): Updated: Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has a well-defined circulation and is producing winds up to 35 mph. Despite marginal environmental conditions, any improvement in the current convective organization could result formation of a tropical depression over the next day or two as the low meanders over open waters, then begins to move northeastward by late this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. 2. South of Southern Mexico (EP96): A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Papin/Roberts View the full article

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 AM HST Fri Aug 2 2024 For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W: No tropical cyclones are expected through the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, located over eastern Cuba. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. && Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four are issued under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. $$ Forecaster Papin NNNN View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Hurricane Carlotta, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Western East Pacific (EP95): Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little better organized compared to yesterday near and just west of an area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. However, marginal environmental conditions are likely to limit development of this system during the next few days. The low is forecast to meander over open waters during the next day or so, then begin moving northeastward by late this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. 2. South of Southern Mexico (EP96): A broad area of low pressure forming a few hundred miles to the south of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Papin View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97): A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of poorly organized showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and Jamaica, as well as the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. The wave is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today. Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend, and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Beven View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Western East Pacific (EP95): A broad area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Marginal environmental conditions are expected to limit development of this system during the next few days. The low is forecast to meander over open waters during the next day or so, then begin moving northeastward by late this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. 2. South of Central America and Southern Mexico: A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of Central America and southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Papin View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97): A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of poorly organized showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and Jamaica, as well as the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. The wave is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today. Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend, and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Beven View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of poorly organized showers and thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, and Jamaica, as well as the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and the Caribbean Sea. The wave is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today. Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend, and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Beven View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Western East Pacific (EP95): A broad area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues producing an area of showers and thunderstorms. Marginal environmental conditions are expected to limit development of this system during the next few days. The low is forecast to meander over open waters during the next day or so, then begin moving northeastward by late this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. 2. South of Central America and Southern Mexico: A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of Central America and southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Papin View the full article

ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 AM HST Fri Aug 2 2024 For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W: No tropical cyclones are expected through the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Gibbs NNNN View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Western East Pacific (EP95): A broad area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Marginal environmental conditions are expected to limit development of this system during the next couple of days. The low is forecast to meander over open waters during the next day or so, then move northeastward by late this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. 2. South of Central America and Southern Mexico: A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of Central America and southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Reinhart View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Fri Aug 2 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Straits of Florida and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97): A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the southeastern Bahamas, eastern Cuba, and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. The wave is expected to move near or over Cuba throughout the day and then emerge over the Straits of Florida tonight or Saturday. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development after that time, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend over the Straits of Florida or eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula. Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of Florida later today. Regardless of development, heavy rains could cause areas of flash flooding across Florida, Cuba, and the Bahamas through the weekend, and interests in these locations should continue to monitor the progress of this system. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent. Forecaster Cangialosi View the full article

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 1 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Carlotta, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 1. Western East Pacific (EP95): A broad area of low pressure located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Marginal environmental conditions are expected to limit development of this system during the next couple of days. The low is forecast to meander over open waters during the next day or so, then move northeastward by late this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. 2. South of Central America and Southern Mexico: A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the south of Central America and southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area of low pressure is expected to form from this system during the next day or so, and thereafter environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form by late this weekend or early next week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Reinhart View the full article